Current: Both the 1-day and 1-week directional agreement bands point the same way — selling. Over the roughly 1-day band, whale net flow, CVD net taker flow, and price all fell together (3 of 3), and over the roughly 1-week band whale net flow and price also fell together (2 of 2). With alignment across both windows rather than any conflict between them, the read is a sustained distribution phase rather than a one-off flush. Price sits at $77,268, down 0.76% over 1D and 2.24% over 1W.
Macro: Prediction markets put BTC touching $80K in September (above current price) at 68.5%, while a 2026 new all-time high is priced at just 8.1%. Fed and CPI odds sit near a coin-flip, at 56% for a 25bps hike and 50% for 0.2% core CPI, with 2026 US recession odds at 8.0%. The Q3 Quarterly Expiry is 23 days out. Taken together, near-term upside to $80K is seen as plausible while longer-horizon macro and price outcomes remain largely undecided.
Medium-Term Trend: The flow regime verdict reads as Direction Undecided, flow at a lull, even as whales net-sold $105,162,866 over the 24H window and $416,881,874 net over the 7-day window (5.5% of $7,620,168,324 traded), with the 7-day figure encompassing the 24H one. Single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net -221.8 BTC and futures net -7,492.9 BTC, a combined 4.26% of the 181,288 BTC traded, alongside the -0.76% price move over the same window. 24H OI on a 2-exchange average rose +1.24% even as whales distributed. The combination of persistent net selling across both windows with OI still expanding suggests the selling is being absorbed rather than triggering a directional break.
Short-Term Overheat: Funding APR is trending higher, at +6.64% (1D trailing average) versus +7.35% (7D) and +6.42% (30D), while the 8H institutional diagnosis calls funding and open interest balanced with no dominant leverage bias. Open interest itself is little changed short-term, -0.37% over 4H and +0.66% over 1D, but up +5.82% over 1W. Retail long ratio is also rising, at 56.3% (1D) versus 52.4% (7D) and 56.0% (30D, daily-bar values). Rising funding and rising retail long positioning against flat 8H leverage balance and weekly-built OI point to leverage accumulating gradually rather than any acute overheat.
Short-Term Read: The 1H institutional read shows whales net-buying into this hour's long liquidations, defending against the flush. The 1H-average MM orderbook footprint is neutral flow, TWAP algo, with a +4.3% imbalance averaged over 238 snapshots taken every 15 seconds. A single-instant orderbook snapshot shows 29.7% bid versus 70.3% ask, a one-off reading that reverts within a minute and should not be read as unusual. In the past 24H, the largest liquidation cluster hit at $76,200 (below current spot), with $6,667,712 in long liquidations across 60 fills, all already closed — together these point to buyers stepping in against liquidation-driven selling rather than a leverage-driven breakdown.
Move-size probability for the next 7 days, computed by code: +/-5% 42% (typical 40%), +/-10% 16% (typical 16%), +/-15% 6% (typical 6%). Size only, not direction.
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We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Liquidations — price levels where liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· No directional edge — funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01) and agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.