The roughly 1-day band shows three-of-three alignment to the downside: whale net flow (24H), CVD net taker flow (24H), and price (24H) all point to selling. The roughly 1-week band shows the opposite, with whale net flow (7-day) and price (1W) both aligned to buying, two of two. This is the defining split in the data right now — a shorter window selling into a longer window that is still up.
Macro: BTC trades at $77,091, down 0.71% over 1D but up 22.54% over 1W and 20.17% over 1M. The Fear & Greed Index reads 66/100, in Greed territory. The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled in 4 days; separately, prediction markets price no Fed rate change at 68% and a BTC touch of $80K in August at 58.1%, while a new BTC ATH in 2026 is priced at 8.2%.
Medium-Term Trend: The flow regime verdict is Direction Undecided, describing flow as at a lull. Whales net-sold $57,745,825 over the last 24H, a distribution-leaning read, but over the longer 7-day window whale large trades show net BUY of $3,164,210,150 (8.1% of $38,914,630,937 traded), the 24H figure sitting inside that 7-day span. The smart money flow verdict is No Clear Signal, with US spot premium at -0.014 and 24H OI change at -0.79% on a 3-exchange average. Single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net +301.9 BTC of 18,525 BTC volume against futures net -2905.5 BTC of 128,937 BTC volume, a combined net of 1.77% of volume traded, alongside the -0.71% price move over the same window.
Short-Term Overheat: The 8H institutional diagnosis calls funding and open interest balanced, with no dominant leverage bias. Funding APR is trending up, from a 30D average of 5.54% to a 7D average of 6.96% and a latest 1D reading of 10.95%, even as open interest has fallen 5.10% over 1W to 184,056 BTC. Retail long ratio is trending down, from a 30D average of 60.0% to a 1D reading of 50.2%. Options positioning shows a put/call open interest ratio of 0.593, an IV-RV spread of -1.52 (options priced above realized vol), and 25-delta put skew at -1.43, with puts bid over calls.
Short-Term Read: The 1H institutional diagnosis notes whale sell flow leading buy flow this hour, with no major liquidation event. Against that, the 1H-average orderbook bid share sits at 55.4%, in the 92nd percentile of the last 7 days' hourly averages (7D average 50.0%), an unusually bid-heavy reading, while the single-instant snapshot shows bid at just 32.9% versus ask 67.1% (a one-off tick that reverts within a minute). The 1H-average market-maker footprint shows passive buy absorption with imbalance +8.7%. On options, max pain for the 25SEP26 expiry sits at $70,000 (below spot), the upside gamma wall at $78,000 (above spot, within pinning range) and the downside gamma wall at $60,000 (well below spot, too far to pin); a 12-25 expiry $60,000 Put position of 6,605 BTC OI is valued Rich at +33.8%.
Move-size probability for the next 7 days, computed by code: +/-5% 29% (typical 40%), +/-10% 7% (typical 16%), +/-15% 2% (typical 6%). Size only, not direction.
We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Max pain, gamma walls, liquidations — price levels where options and liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· Max pain expiry — the one with most open interest, not the nearest.
· Option rich/cheap — a model number, not a traded price.
· No directional edge — Fear & Greed (buying fear z≈0, selling greed lost), funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01), agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.