On the roughly 1-day band, whale net flow, CVD net taker flow, and price split two-to-one toward buying, with 24H CVD the lone dissenter. On the roughly 1-week band, whale net flow and price both align to the upside, two of two. That weekly alignment is the cleanest signal in the data; the daily band shows the same buy-side lean but without full agreement.
Macro: BTC trades at $77,335, up 22.57% over 1W and 18.78% over 1M, with the Fear & Greed Index at 71/100 (Greed). The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled in 5 days. Separately, prediction-market odds put no change in the Fed rate decision at 68%, core CPI (Aug) landing at 0.2% at 43%, 2026 US recession at 7.5%, an October 1 government shutdown at 14%, a 2026 BTC new ATH at 8.2%, and a BTC $80K touch in August at 62.0%.
Medium-Term Trend: The flow regime verdict reads Direction Undecided, with flow described as at a lull. Whales net-bought $122,446,736 over the last 24H, an accumulation-leaning profile, while the smart money flow verdict shows Leverage Unwind, Spot Flat, with US spot premium at -0.009 and 24H OI down 2.70% on a 3-exchange average. Over the longer 7-day window, whale trades of $75K or more show net buying of $3,138,182,475, 8.3% of $37,811,137,314 traded, with the 24H figure sitting inside that window as its most recent subset. Move-size probabilities for the next 7 days sit below typical levels across the board: +/-5% at 31% (typical 40%), +/-10% at 8% (typical 16%), +/-15% at 2% (typical 6%); single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net +559.8 BTC against futures net -590.0 BTC, a combined net of 0.01% of volume traded, against a price move of +0.42% over the same window.
Short-Term Overheat: Open interest stands at 182,724 BTC, down 0.39% over 4H, 1.42% over 1D, and 5.26% over 1W, with the 8H diagnosis confirming positions being closed rather than added (-1.1%). Funding APR is rising, at +10.95% (1D trailing average) versus +6.36% (7D) and +5.38% (30D). Retail long ratio is falling, at 50.9% (1D) versus 57.9% (7D) and 60.3% (30D). Options positioning shows a P/C ratio of 0.589 with DVol at 42.23, an IV-RV spread of -1.50 (options priced above realized vol), and 25-delta put skew at -3.61 for the 6-day expiry, puts bid over calls.
Short-Term Read: The 1H institutional diagnosis shows whale sell flow leading buy flow this hour with no major liquidation event. The single-instant orderbook snapshot reads 52.0% bid / 48.0% ask, but the more persistent 1H-average bid sits at 46.7%, in the 17th percentile of the last 7 days' 167 hourly averages (7D average 50.1%), an ask-leaning read; the 1H-average MM footprint confirms Neutral Flow with imbalance at -5.6%. In the past 24H, the largest liquidation cluster sat at $78,960, above spot, with $12,956,507 in short liquidations across 139 fills, all already closed. Options max pain for the 25SEP26 expiry sits at $70,000, 9.5% below spot; the upside gamma wall at $78,000 (+0.9%, within pinning range) sits just above spot, while the downside gamma wall at $60,000 (-22.4%, too far to pin) sits well below; whale option positioning shows fairly-valued $70,000 and $80,000 calls (+1.9%, +2.1%) alongside a richly-valued $60,000 put (+33.8%).
We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Max pain, gamma walls, liquidations — price levels where options and liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· Max pain expiry — the one with most open interest, not the nearest.
· Option rich/cheap — a model number, not a traded price.
· No directional edge — Fear & Greed (buying fear z≈0, selling greed lost), funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01), agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.