Current: Short-term flow and price are moving in lockstep while the weekly picture is split, and that split is the key thing to watch. Over the roughly 1-day band, whale net flow, CVD taker flow, and price all point up together, 3 of 3 aligned. Over the roughly 1-week band, whale net flow points down while price points up, a 1-of-2 split with no alignment. This means the recent push higher is broad-based across flow types, but it sits inside a week where large holders have been net sellers even as price gained.
Macro: BTC trades at $80,998, up 4.81% on the day, up 0.97% over the week, and up 26.39% over the month. Prediction markets price a 57% chance of no change at the Fed rate decision, 50% on Core CPI (Aug) printing 0.2%, 7.5% on a 2026 US recession, 6.7% on a new BTC ATH in 2026, and 84.5% on BTC touching $82K in September, a level above current price. A Q3 quarterly options expiry sits 22 days out. Odds are concentrated on a near-term touch of $82K while longer-horizon outcomes like a new ATH remain priced as unlikely.
Medium-Term Trend: The price/funding/OI matrix comes back as direction undecided, flow at a lull, even as whales bought a net $281,015,513 over the last 24 hours on an accumulation-leaning profile and 24H OI rose 2.92% on a 2-exchange average. Zooming out to the 7-day window, whale trades of $75K or more show net sell of $205,538,192, 2.6% of the $7,957,915,067 traded, a longer window that contains the 24H figure as its most recent subset. Single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net +1,551.4 BTC and futures net +7,901.6 BTC, a combined net equal to 4.62% of the 204,647 BTC traded, alongside the same +4.81% price move cited above. The combination of leverage buildup, 24H accumulation, and positive net taker flow against a 7-day net-sell tape indicates the latest push is being driven by fresh buying and added leverage layered on top of a week that was still net distributive among large holders.
Short-Term Overheat: Open interest is at 168,467 BTC, up 3.90% over 4 hours, up 3.09% over 1 day, and up 7.17% over the week, with the 8H diagnosis noting a 3.6% OI rise over that window alongside still-balanced funding, read as fresh leverage entering. Funding APR has climbed to 8.53% on a 1-day trailing average from 7.76% over 7 days and 6.47% over 30 days, a rising trend versus the 30-day baseline. Retail long ratio, measured by account count on a single exchange, sits at 54.9% over 1 day versus 52.8% over 7 days and 55.8% over 30 days, a falling trend versus the 30-day average. Rising funding and rising OI paired with a retail long ratio that is actually falling versus its own 30-day average suggests the leverage build is not primarily a retail long crowding trade.
Short-Term Read: The 1H institutional diagnosis shows whale buy flow leading sell flow this hour with no major liquidation event, while the past-24H liquidation record shows the largest cluster at $81,360, above current spot, where $8,721,638 in short liquidations fired across 19 fills, all already closed positions. The single-instant orderbook snapshot reads 74.0% bid versus 26.0% ask, a one-off tick that reverts within a minute and should not be read as a trend. The 1-hour average market-maker footprint reads neutral flow via TWAP algo with a -2.3% imbalance across 238 snapshots taken every 15 seconds. Taken together, near-term buy-side pressure this hour coexists with a market-maker posture that stayed neutral on average, meaning the immediate tape is active but not yet showing sustained one-sided algo positioning.
Move-size probability for the next 7 days, computed by code: +/-5% 42% (typical 40%), +/-10% 16% (typical 16%), +/-15% 6% (typical 6%). Size only, not direction.
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We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Liquidations — price levels where liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· No directional edge — funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01) and agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.