Over the roughly 1-day band, whale net flow and CVD net taker flow both lean toward sell while price over the same 24H window is up, a 2-of-1 split with no clean alignment. The roughly 1-week band shows the same pattern in miniature: whale net flow over 7 days leans sell while price over 1W is up, a 1-of-2 split that likewise fails to align. No band in this dataset shows unanimous agreement across all readings — every comparable set splits against price. Beyond that, price sits at $79,764, up 0.03% on the day and up 24.69% over the past month.
Macro: BTC trades at $79,764, up 1.85% over 1W and up 24.69% over 1M. The Fear & Greed Index reads 73/100, in Greed territory. A Q3 Quarterly Expiry sits 28 days out. Prediction-market odds show Fed rate decision no-change at 68%, Core CPI (Aug) at 0.2% priced at 50%, US recession (2026) at 7.5%, another government shutdown/House winner 2026 at 85%, BTC new ATH (2026) at 10.1%, and BTC touching $82K in August — above current price — at 39.2%.
Medium-Term Trend: The flow regime matrix currently flags Long Liquidation / Stop-Outs. Whales net-sold $2,294,695 over the trailing 24H, a distribution-leaning profile, while over the longer 7-day window whale net selling totals $40,078,816, only 0.4% of the $9,923,337,230 traded in that window. 24H OI change from the smart-money flow source reads +1.52% on a 2-exchange average, with US spot premium unavailable. Single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net -1374.8 BTC and futures net -1374.4 BTC, a combined net of 1.26% of volume traded, against a 24H price change of +0.03%.
Short-Term Overheat: The 8H institutional diagnosis reads balanced funding and open interest, with no dominant leverage bias over that window. Open interest stands at 157,313 BTC, down 0.15% over 4H but up 3.00% over 1D and up 1.06% over 1W. Funding APR is rising on a trailing basis, from 6.08% over 30D to 8.50% over 7D to 6.47% latest 1D. Retail long ratio is falling on the same comparison, from 57.8% over 30D to 50.2% over 7D to 47.9% latest 1D.
Short-Term Read: Whale sell flow leads buy flow this past hour, with no major liquidation event recorded. The 1H-average MM orderbook footprint reads neutral flow via TWAP algo, with imbalance at -4.0% across 237 snapshots taken every 15 seconds over the hour, weighted toward levels nearest the touch. Looking back at the past 24H, the largest liquidation cluster sat at $80,880, above current spot, where $4,486,863 of short liquidations across 33 fills were already executed and those positions are now closed.
Move-size probability for the next 7 days, computed by code: +/-5% 27% (typical 40%), +/-10% 7% (typical 16%), +/-15% 2% (typical 6%). Size only, not direction.
We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Max pain, gamma walls, liquidations — price levels where options and liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· No directional edge — Fear & Greed (buying fear z≈0, selling greed lost), funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01), agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.