Current: Short-term selling is broad-based, with the 1-day band showing whale net flow, CVD taker flow, and price all pointing down (3 of 3 aligned), while the 1-week band splits between weekly whale selling and a positive weekly price move (1 of 2 aligned). The alignment confirms the recent drop is being driven by consistent, same-direction pressure across flow and price, whereas the weekly picture shows no such consensus. BTC trades at $79,672, down 1.85% over 1D but up 1.89% over 1W and up 23.92% over 1M.
Macro: BTC sits at $79,672, down 1.85% on the day but up 1.89% on the week and up 23.92% on the month. A Q3 Quarterly Expiry is scheduled in 20 days. Separately, prediction-market odds put Core CPI (Aug) at 0.2% with a 50% probability, US Recession (2026) at 6.5%, BTC New ATH (2026) at 6.8%, and BTC touching $80K in September (above current price) at 72.3%. These figures describe separate, unrelated forecasts and carry no combined implication beyond what each states on its own.
Medium-Term Trend: The flow regime verdict reads direction undecided, consistent with whales net-selling $142,448,290 over the last 24H (distribution-leaning) and the smart money verdict flagging a leverage unwind with 24H OI down 4.85% on a 2-exchange average. Over the longer 7-day window, whale trades show net sell of $156,440,849, 2.0% of $7,798,175,365 traded — a smaller relative tilt than the 24H figure it contains. Single-exchange 24H CVD shows spot net -633.9 BTC and futures net -7,295.3 BTC, a combined net of 3.70% of the 214,062 BTC traded, alongside the -1.85% price move over the same window. Move-size odds for the next 7 days sit close to typical levels (42% vs 40% for ±5%, 16% vs 16% for ±10%, 6% vs 6% for ±15%). Together, the distribution-leaning whale activity, the OI unwind, and the negative CVD point to position reduction rather than fresh aggressive shorting, and expected volatility over the coming week is not elevated versus normal.
Short-Term Overheat: The 8H institutional diagnosis shows balanced funding and open interest, with no dominant leverage bias. Open interest stands at 163,232 BTC, up 0.15% over 4H but down 4.64% over 1D and up 5.09% over 1W. Funding APR is falling, with the latest 1D reading at +3.85% against a 7D average of +7.26% and a 30D average of +6.55%. Retail long ratio is also falling, at 50.4% over 1D versus 51.6% over 7D and 55.3% over 30D. The combination of easing funding, a declining retail long skew, and a lack of dominant leverage bias suggests leverage is being trimmed rather than aggressively rebuilt in either direction.
Short-Term Read: The 1H institutional diagnosis shows whales net-buying into this hour's long liquidations, acting as buyers against the flush. The single-instant orderbook snapshot shows 57.2% bid versus 42.8% ask, a one-off tick that reverts within a minute. The 1H-average MM footprint reads neutral flow with a +6.6% imbalance across 238 snapshots over the past hour. Separately, the largest liquidation cluster in the past 24H sat at $79,080, below current spot price, with $23,681,967 in long liquidations across 24 fills, all already closed. The near-term picture shows buyers stepping in against a liquidation flush while orderbook and footprint readings stay neutral to mildly bid-tilted, with no pending stops implied by the already-executed liquidation cluster.
This report is published three times a day at 09:10, 17:10 and 01:10 KST (00:10 / 08:10 / 16:10 UTC). Join our Telegram channel for real-time market snapshots.
We collect and cross-check these numbers ourselves. What follows is context on where the market stands — not a buy or sell call.
· Move-size probability — how far, not which way. 7-day horizon only.
· Liquidations — price levels where liquidations cluster. No evidence they pull price toward them.
· No directional edge — funding (an edge in 2019-2022 was gone by 2023-present, z +3.0 → +0.01) and agreeing readings (flow and price move together, so they are not independent). We show them because they describe the current state, not because they predict.